Tuesday, March 03, 2009

You can be happy now!

I was reading this article in Marketwatch and thought might be of interest to my friends or anyone who comes across this blog. Being happy does not need any reason. If you need reasons then probably it becomes difficult for one to be happy. My Father used to say "Peace of mind is not something you can go and buy in a shop." If it were for sale then the person with lots of money would be the happiest. So be happy because you can. Yes you can!

Sunday, March 01, 2009

When will this great recession end???.

This is the question that is almost in everyone's mind these days. The Federal Reserve chairman Mr. Ben Bernanke was on record, at the recent congressional hearings, that the economy would be out of recession in 2010. Based on that statement New York Times asked about 11 experts to give their opinions as to when this painful recession would end. Their opinions are linked in this blog headline.

Every one of them, seems to echo similar sentiments, but in a different way. The earliest call was for it to end this year and the longest call was to last for 3 years, though not with any confidence.

James Grant, the Editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer and the author, most recently, of “Mr. Market Miscalculates.”, said "Today’s low prices, painful though they may be, are the market’s own shovel-ready stimulus. Before you know it, the stock market, and the residential real-estate market, too, will be on their way back up again — just don’t ask when."

Stephen S. Roach, the Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, said "it looks to me as if this recession won’t end until late 2010 or early 2011."

A. Michael Spencer, an Emeritus Professor of Management at Stanford and also the Winner of the Nobel prize in economics in 2001, said "Not too soon." He also added "If governments are quick and clear in their intentions and intervene in a coordinated way in both the real economy and the financial sector, we will probably have an unusually long and deep global recession through 2010. If they don’t, it is likely to be worse than that."

William Poole. a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and the president and chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from 1998 to 2008. said "I believe, though without great confidence, that the recession will end in the second half of this year. "

Eric Schmidt, the chairman and chief executive of Google, said "ECONOMISTS hesitate to predict the future for good reason. But when looking at our economic decline, we can all agree on two things: we did not get here overnight and we will not recover tomorrow."

George Cooper, the author of “The Origin of Financial Crises: Central Banks, Credit Bubbles and the Efficient Market Fallacy.”, said "while the technical recession could be over by the end of the year, the broader credit cycle will likely remain a significant drag on economic activity well into the next decade. Either way, we have a long way to go."

Niall Ferguson, a professor at Harvard and the author of “The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World.”, said "So far in this recession, remember, we have had only two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product. At the moment, I find it quite easy to imagine two consecutive years of contraction. And I don’t rule out two more lean years after that. "

Alan S. Blinder a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton and a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said "HERE’S the hard truth: Nobody knows when this recession will end."

Marcelle Chauvet, an associate professor of economics at the University of California at Riverside and Kevin A. Hasset, the director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, said " RECESSIONS end, and this one will, too. But the sad truth is, the probability of leaving a recession once you are in one is about the same each month — about 8 percent. It is as if God rolls two dice each month, and the recession ends when he rolls a 10."

Carmen M. Reinhart, a professor of economics at the University of Maryland, said " After the most severe banking crises around the world in the postwar period, the economy has taken an average of four years to return to its previous peak in personal income. After the Depression, it took the United States 10 years. "

Nouriel Roubini, a professor of economics at the New York University Stern School of Business, and the chairman of an economic consulting firm, said "Even if appropriate aggressive policy actions were undertaken — monetary and fiscal stimulus, bank clean-up and credit restoration, mortgage debt reduction for insolvent households — the growth rate would not rise closer to 2 percent until 2011. So this recession may last 36 months."

When we read all of their opinions, it seems as if no one is sure as to how and when this will end. Everyone seems to be saying with confidence though, that this will be very painful while it lasts. How ever long this lasts, we will all come out of it together, hopefully sooner than later, in this once in a lifetime Global Recession.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Fear is the key.

Last week I heard from one of my friends, a comment from someone at a party that he/she would not like disciplining children. I do not understand this concept of not disciplining children and letting them learn things on their own. When we are at home, we have some liberties, and freedom. But when we go out we want to present our best face to others. We try to be nice, wear presentable clothes and be on the best possible behavior. When we tell others that we do not like to discipline our children, what are we conveying? We may not mean it, but are we trying to say, that we care only about ourselves and not others?

We can give our children the freedom to experience, understand and develop on their own, but some parental oversight is warranted. There are certain things in life which are to be taught. If there were no rules, regulations and laws in Society, imagine how difficult it would have been for us to live our lives the way we are used to. Similarly, I think there ought to be rules and regulations in our personal lives to help us in our daily life and also to achieve our future goals.

So what makes us follow these rules? - The fear that there are consequences for our actions or inaction. Without this fear it is very difficult for us as a Society to enforce discipline. I guess this fear stems from the basic nature of life, without which any species cannot survive for long. I believe children to some extent are a reflection of how we live our lives.

Take the case of Nadya Suleman, who was in the news recently for her octuplets. She is young, unwed, unemployed Mother of Six children, living with her parents. How did she decide to have 8 more on top of the 6 she already had? What would have prompted her to take the decision to bring more children into this world, when she was not able to support herself and her children on her own. Would she have done this if there were known consequences for her actions? In US you have freedom to do what you want to do. But, what about personal responsibility? Isn't she being irresponsible to do what she did? Yes, I believe so. No one is trying here to tell her how to live her life. That is her life anyway. But we do tell people that they should not be cheating, stealing, killing and so on... How come there are no rules about Responsibility? Where is her personal accountability in all this? Whatever happened to the Doctor who performed these procedures for all her 14 children and his responsibility, morals and ethics? Something is wrong somewhere, which allowed all these players in this sordid drama, to do what they did. This is a tragedy for everyone involved in this episode, especially her aging parents and all 14 children.

Sometimes we need to have fear without which we lose our bearings. Being fearless is good but not all the time. What is happening all around us with people losing their 401Ks and all other savings, is because of the fearless greed that engulfed us. Many people believed that the housing boom will last forever, just like in the last tech boom many thought with "irrational exuberance", that we entered ‘a new economy’.

I am not advocating being fearful irrationally, but I believe we could have avoided much of this pain, if as Individuals and as a society, we were fearful of the consequences of our actions. It is no longer a virtue to be fearless!

Thursday, February 05, 2009

There is no free lunch.

GE CEO Jeff Immelt said "Buy America" Provisions in the latest Stimulus jeopardizes US Exports. I could not agree more. In the larger interests of everyone I think, any kind of protectionism is bad. When smaller, developing economies had problems earlier, they were told by us that they can not be protectionist. Then, how can we say that we need to do that, now that we are in difficulties. I believe, that this will set a chain reaction around the world, which will have disastrous consequences. This certainly is not in our interest.

But when he said, that Government should not interfere in the Business of running the businesses, I could not entirely agree. These are two different things and can not be clubbed together. What Government is trying to do, is to enforce some rules in the Business, because they themselves are not ready to do that.

Remember what Alan Greenspan said “Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief.” One thing which divides all the Human beings is the element of greed.

All these Madoff Ponzi schemes, Housing bubbles, would not have happened, but for this greed. Goldman Sachs CEO was drawing 100 Million in one year. This is something so ridiculous, that we cannot even dream of seeing this kind of money all our lifetime. If the Government does not impose sanctions on how to compensate their Executives, who will do that. Public is so disgusted with this, but they cannot do anything. All this Bailout money that is being pumped into the Economy belong to us. When someone in the Private enterprise invests money in the Business, they will dictate the terms for doing so. It is not as if the Government is making it mandatory for all the businesses in US to follow this diktat. What is being said, is if you need our money, then you need to cap your executive salaries at 500K. I believe that this is not telling businesses how to do business.

Mr. Immelt's premise that you can not attract the Best and the Brightest when you have caps in salaries is erroneous and reeks of protectionism in favor of his fellow businessmen. If the caps are enforced for Bank of America, will the CEO Ken Lewis leave because he does not get enough salary? Where will he go, if he leaves? How many Bank of America's do you have in this world, and which are not in trouble and do not need bailout money. Once these Businesses start making profits and return the Bailout money, I am sure they will go back to their old ways of paying in hundreds of millions of dollars in executive compensation.

Tuesday, February 03, 2009

Yes, we can screw up and admit it too!!!

How refreshing to hear these words from one of the most powerful people in the World. I believe it takes not only courage but also conviction to say that they blundered. It is such a change from the days of our former Presidents, from whom we never heard an apology for the monumental blunders that they committed. I think as Human beings we let our egos get the better of us, in admitting mistakes. Very few among us believe in the saying "To err is human".

"I’ve got to own up to my mistake. Ultimately, it's important for this administration to send a message that there aren't two sets of rules — you know, one for prominent people and one for ordinary folks who have to pay their taxes," Obama said.

I felt good today, that Politics is, after all not the last refuge of a scoundrel ,but can be home to Gentlemen too!!!

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Tribal/Clan Mentality

A couple of weeks back I woke up, like the rest of the World, to the news of Ramalinga Raju, Former CEO of Satyam Computers, involved in the curious case of the missing Rs. 7000 Crores. I come from the same city of Hyderabad in India from where Satyam had its famed head quarters.

Before this, he was one of the most Respected for his pioneering work in the field of IT infrastructure in India. He had everything going for him. All of this respect and admiration from his fellow Indians vanished overnight, after this news broke. This rivalled with the "Bernie Madoff" scandal as one of the biggest scams to have hit us. Scores of people must have become paupers overnight, because of the crash in Satyam's stock, after this single event. By now many people working in this company must have been having sleepless nights as to when their jobs will be on the chopping block. Many might have contemplated and some might have even committed suicide because of the turn of events.

I can not understand why we do what we do. I am at a loss to understand why Mr. Raju did what he did. May be this can not be explained in simple terms. May be Greed is one of factors and that alone can not explain this. This in itself is a big topic for discussion. But what surprised me most was the news item that some of the supporters were conducting pujas(Prayers) for what is happening to him, because of his actions.

This is really perplexing as to why someone has to support someone else, simply because they belong to their Clan/Tribe/Caste/Religion/Region/Family/Sex/Friends/Country/State, even if they knew that what the other person did was totally wrong. This mentality of supporting someone because they are like them or belong to them, even if they know he/she was not right, is inexplicable/unexplainable. This idea that we have to support our kind under all circumstances is not good for the society as a whole. We cannot build good societies based on these narrow and trivial foundations. What is wrong has to be condemned by everyone and what is right has to be supported no matter even if it is done by your opponent. May be this will happen in an idealistic world but not in the real world. But at least we should hope to build such a society all over the world.

In a Society where you are measured as to how successful you are (how rich you are) and get respect based on that, irrespective of how you made that money, these things are bound to happen time and again. This has to come as a systemic change and will not happen overnight. To succeed by hook or crook, to get ahead in life any which way, becomes the norm. No one has respect for others' time. Always it is the self interest that matters. In general discussions people always say that the Policticians are spoiling our country. But where do these Politicians come from? They are not from the outside world as they happen to be from the same society, unless your country has been invaded and occupied. To expect that the Politicians do good for your country, but we do not change our attitudes, is expecting miracles and miracles do not happen often.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Life and Death

Recently one of my closest friends lost his Mother. She was a strong willed person and I have always liked her. It feels very bad when you lose someone close to you. We do not understand this till it happens to someone we love like a close family member or a close friend. Everyday we read, watch and hear about people dying. We just take them in our stride and carry on.

We are told that Life is precious and we should live it to the fullest. We are told that there are 2 things we cannot escape in life, one is taxes and the other is death. Yet no one wants to die. We all want to prolong our life as long as possible. Does it mean we do not want to face the reality? May be. So much of efforts go into taking care of the terminally ill. My father used to say, we are all going to die one day or the other. It is just a matter of when and how, not if. Yet, all our life, we try to accumulate so much money in our life, which we do not ever need. We come alone and leave alone. It is so difficult for us to let go of things that we like and the lifestyle that we live. May be that is the way our species tries to survive and thrive.

I do not know what happens to us when we die and I guess nobody knows. In this period between our birth and death, which we call our life, we have so many problems to worry and cry about. We feel ecstatic when we succeed and crestfallen when we fail. Yet, I believe that our life is not complete without all these experiences. It is a wonderful life!

Are we in a depression or deep recession or a combination of both Repression/Decession???

The more I read every day about what is happening around us, the more I am convinced that the next few years is not going to be easy, for all of us. Those who are optimistic about the economy are being called delusional and may be rightly so, looking at all the data that is pouring in every day.

I was watching the CNN show Fareed Zakaria GPS last weekend, which is very interesting and is a must watch for me, whenever possible, in which there was an interview with a Financial Historian and Author of "The Ascent of Money" by name, Niall Ferguson. His opinion was that we now are teetering between Depression and a Deep, deep Recession ( Similar to Japan in the 90s) and said given the choice we would be better of with the latter. I could not agree more.

To confirm what is going on I stumbled upon an article in Minyanville.com, "Welcome to the Depression", by Bennet Sedacca, the link to which you will be taken, when you click on the title. It is depressing to read what is going on, but do we have a choice in this? We are all in the same boat or a Roller Coaster together and let us be ready for the ride of our lifetime!!!

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Being happy is a habit too!

It has been a long time since I wrote in the blog last. I think, You stop doing it for sometime, then you lose the habit. That is it! I can blame it on the habit as the true culprit! Like they say "Old habits die hard", may be "New habits die easy"!!! It is all in the habits that we imbibe, as we evolve in our life.

I was thinking the other day as to what makes us happy. I was not sure. Is it what we do? Is it what we accomplish? Is it how we live? Is it what we eat? Is it what we see? Is it what we hear? So many questions that have no answers. May be all of them together.

Then it dawned on me that being happy and feeling good about your life is a habit too! Just like we do physical exercises for being healthy. But we reap the benefits only when we are consistent. This can only be done when we are persistent and persevere. We need to motivate ourselves into doing this over a period of time. What we are doing here is to train our body to get into a better physical shape. Similarly may be we can train our minds to be happy most of the time, if not all the time. Happiness is in enjoying what you do or don't. Most of the times we feel bad that we are not doing this and that. Why is it that we always to look at things "half empty" and not "half full". For the last holidays we did not go out of California for the first time in many years and really relaxed for 2 full weeks. You can look at this and say we wasted our time by not going anywhere. Why do we have this mindset, that we should be happy only when we do something and not happy when we don't do anything at time. I thought it was relaxing not going out anywhere and just lazing around. I think we should be able to enjoy the inactivity which we indulge in sometimes and not feel guilty. Earlier I used to feel bad that I was not waking up early enough. Then one of my colleague-friends suggested that, may be I should just take it for what it is and be cool.

My father used to say " a healthy body and a healthy mind". I think there is some element of truth in that. Like we train our body, we can train our mind too.

I read somewhere when we base our happiness on some accomplishment we can never be happy. We work hard to achieve something and then we feel happy. But after that event we look to achieve something else and wait for that event to be happy again. This goes on and on till the end. There are moments of happiness when you get something, interspersed with the struggles and frustrations in the periods in between. Why can't we just live the life being content and happy with what we have? We can, but then someone says, "when you are content and happy, then you will not progress in life". I do not for a moment believe, that "no one can be successful if he/she is happy and contented". I believe that you can compartmentalize, where you can be successful and also live a happy and contented life.